Monday, August 16, 2010

Price To Book Ratio (P/B)

Investors looking for hot stocks aren’t the only ones trolling the markets. A quiet group of folks called value investors go about their business looking for companies that the market has passed by.

Some of these investors become quite wealthy finding sleepers, holding on to them for the long term as the companies go about their business without much attention from the market, until one day they pop up on the screen, and some analyst “discovers” them and bids up the stock. Meanwhile, the value investor pockets a hefty profit.

Value investors look for some other indicators besides earnings growth and so on. One of the metrics they look for is the Price to Book ratio or P/B. This measurement looks at the value the market places on the book value of the company.

You calculate the P/B by taking the current price per share and dividing by the book value per share.

P/B = Share Price / Book Value Per Share

Like the P/E, the lower the P/B, the better the value. Value investors would use a low P/B is stock screens, for instance, to identify potential candidates.

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Price To Sales Ratio (P/S)

You have a number of tools available to you when it comes to evaluating companies with earnings. The first three articles listed at the bottom of this article, in particular deal with earnings directly. You can add the two others on dividends and the one on return on equity to the list as specific to companies that are or have made money in the past.

Does that mean companies that don’t have any earnings are bad investments? Not necessarily, but you should approach companies with no history of actually making money with caution.

The Internet boom of the late 1990s was a classic example of hundreds of companies coming to the market with no history of earning – some of them didn’t even have products yet. Fortunately, that’s behind us.

However, we still have the problem of needing some measure of young companies with no earnings, yet worthy of consideration. After all, Microsoft had no earnings at one point in its corporate life.

One ratio you can use is Price to Sales or P/S ratio. This metric looks at the current stock price relative to the total sales per share. You calculate the P/S by dividing the market cap of the stock by the total revenues of the company.

You can also calculate the P/S by dividing the current stock price by the sales per share.

P/S = Market Cap / Revenues
or
P/S = Stock Price / Sales Price Per Share

Much like P/E, the P/S number reflects the value placed on sales by the market. The lower the P/S, the better the value, at least that’s the conventional wisdom. However, this is definitely not a number you want to use in isolation. When dealing with a young company, there are many questions to answer and the P/S supplies just one answer.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

3.PEG (Projected Earnings Growth)

In this article on Price to Earnings Ratio or P/E , This number gives you an idea of what value the market place on a company’s earnings.
The P/E is the most popular way to compare the relative value of stocks based on earnings because you calculate it by taking the current price of the stock and divide it by the Earnings Per Share (EPS). This tells you whether a stock’s price is high or low relative to its earnings.

Some investors may consider a company with a high P/E overpriced and they may be correct. A high P/E may be a signal that traders have pushed a stock’s price beyond the point where any reasonable near term growth is probable.

However, a high P/E may also be a strong vote of confidence that the company still has strong growth prospects in the future, which should mean an even higher stock price.

Because the market is usually more concerned about the future than the present, it is always looking for some way to project out. Another ratio you can use will help you look at future earnings growth is called the PEG ratio. The PEG factors in projected earnings growth rates to the P/E for another number to remember.

You calculate the PEG by taking the P/E and dividing it by the projected growth in earnings.

PEG = P/E / (projected growth in earnings)

For example, a stock with a P/E of 30 and projected earning growth next year of 15% would have a PEG of 2 (30 / 15 = 2).

What does the “2” mean? Like all ratios, it simply shows you a relationship. In this case, the lower the number the less you pay for each unit of future earnings growth. So even a stock with a high P/E, but high projected earning growth may be a good value.

Looking at the opposite situation; a low P/E stock with low or no projected earnings growth, you see that what looks like a value may not work out that way. For example, a stock with a P/E of 8 and flat earnings growth equals a PEG of 8. This could prove to be an expensive investment.

A few important things to remember about PEG:

•It is about year-to-year earnings growth
•It relies on projections, which may not always be accurate

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

2.Price to Earnings Ratio

If there is one number that people look at than more any other it is the Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E). The P/E is one of those numbers that investors throw around with great authority as if it told the whole story. Of course, it doesn’t tell the whole story (if it did, we wouldn’t need all the other numbers.)
The P/E looks at the relationship between the stock price and the company’s earnings. The P/E is the most popular metric of stock analysis, although it is far from the only one you should consider.

You calculate the P/E by taking the share price and dividing it by the company’s EPS.

P/E = Stock Price / EPS

For example, a company with a share price of $40 and an EPS of 8 would have a P/E of 5 ($40 / 8 = 5).

What does P/E tell you? The P/E gives you an idea of what the market is willing to pay for the company’s earnings. The higher the P/E the more the market is willing to pay for the company’s earnings. Some investors read a high P/E as an overpriced stock and that may be the case, however it can also indicate the market has high hopes for this stock’s future and has bid up the price.

Conversely, a low P/E may indicate a “vote of no confidence” by the market or it could mean this is a sleeper that the market has overlooked. Known as value stocks, many investors made their fortunes spotting these “diamonds in the rough” before the rest of the market discovered their true worth.

What is the “right” P/E? There is no correct answer to this question, because part of the answer depends on your willingness to pay for earnings. The more you are willing to pay, which means you believe the company has good long term prospects over and above its current position, the higher the “right” P/E is for that particular stock in your decision-making process. Another investor may not see the same value and think your “right” P/E is all wrong.

Monday, June 21, 2010

1.Earnings Per Share

One of the challenges of evaluating stocks is establishing an “apples to apples” comparison. What I mean by this is setting up a comparison that is meaningful so that the results help you make an investment decision.

Similarly, comparing the earnings of one company to another really doesn’t make any sense, if you think about it. Using the raw numbers ignores the fact that the two companies undoubtedly have a different number of outstanding shares.

For example, companies A and B both earn $100, but company A has 10 shares outstanding, while company B has 50 shares outstanding. Which company’s stock do you want to own?

It makes more sense to look at earnings per share (EPS) for use as a comparison tool. You calculate earnings per share by taking the net earnings and divide by the outstanding shares.

EPS = Net Earnings / Outstanding Shares
Using our example above, Company A had earnings of $100 and 10 shares outstanding, which equals an EPS of 10 ($100 / 10 = 10). Company B had earnings of $100 and 50 shares outstanding, which equals an EPS of 2 ($100 / 50 = 2).

So, you should go buy Company A with an EPS of 10, right? Maybe, but not just on the basis of its EPS. The EPS is helpful in comparing one company to another, assuming they are in the same industry, but it doesn’t tell you whether it’s a good stock to buy or what the market thinks of it. For that information, we need to look at some ratios.

Before we move on, you should note that there are three types of EPS numbers:

•Trailing EPS – last year’s numbers and the only actual EPS
•Current EPS – this year’s numbers, which are still projections
•Forward EPS – future numbers, which are obviously projections

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Starting Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is the process of looking at a business at the basic or fundamental financial level. This type of analysis examines key ratios of a business to determine its financial health and gives you an idea of the value its stock.

Many investors use fundamental analysis alone or in combination with other tools to evaluate stocks for investment purposes. The goal is to determine the current worth and, more importantly, how the market values the stock.

The following articles will focus on the key tools of fundamental analysis and what they tell you. Even if you don’t plan to do in-depth fundamental analysis yourself, it will help you follow stocks more closely if you understand the key ratios and terms.

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Volatility Of Stock Markets & Its Causes

Volatility is one of the best phenomenon without which stock markets will loose its charm. It is the tendency of fluctuation of market indices over a period of time; more is the fluctuation, higher is the volatility. The ups and downs of stock prices is what that adds spice to the market behaviour. This see-sawing effect has its own implications, both good and bad. Good, because prudent investors taking advantage buy on dips and sell on highs for profit booking. On the flip side, greater volatility lowers investor’s confidence in the market prompting them to transfer their investment in less risky options due to unexpected market behaviour.

Having observed the past major events of volatility, one can realise the root cause as “unanticipated information” breaking out in the market. When this news stabilises, volatility vanishes because the uncertainty related dies out.

Few examples from recent past:

• Govt announced buying of shares/bonds of Indian companies through participatory notes (PN).
• CRR and repo rates hike by RBI.
• Satyam fiasco and Lehman’s bankruptcy news.
• Stringent IPO regulations.
• US recession fear. Jan 21, 2008 saw biggest ever fall of 1408 points due to volatility on account of US fears of recession.

Now the question arises how this uncertainty leads to such aftershocks in market.

Firstly, investments by FIIs have a major influence on movement of SENSEX which came into limelight during general elections of 2004. Owing to fear of reforms due to new government there was continued selling pressure by FIIs resulting in sharp decline in the index. Later on when the news regarding these reforms stabilised, FIIs started buying back the shares they sold earlier. Thus aiming at profit booking and balancing the portfolio, FIIs keep relocating their funds from time to time. For example if they find govt policies not in their favour, they would withdraw their investments from Indian markets and invest in some other market leading to sudden crash in index.

Secondly, Indian markets are sensitive to global markets. It has been observed that many times if NASDAQ closes high, SENSEX opens in green. So an unwanted news broke out in US may show its effects in Indian markets leading to intra-day volatility.
Thirdly, company specific news may cause volatile sessions in the market. From recent example of Satyam computers ltd, markets were highly volatile due to investor’s sentiment being in dilemma and anticipations about the future of company and related conglomerates.

Fourthly, Political news and news related to finance tend to affect market sentiment. Like RBI declaring CRR hikes, lowering interest rates prompt investor to relocate their investments accordingly. Likewise, news related to scams and frauds also create panic amongst investors making the markets volatile.

Volatility in acceptable limits is a sign of healthy markets as it leads to correction if there is overvaluation of prices. At the same time there is huge risk associated. The crux is that whatever you have in your portfolio of stocks, wind may start blowing against you anytime. So to play safe keep a margin to bear the volatility risk and don’t put all your eggs in same basket as the basic rule of portfolio management says.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

What Helps Us Make Money :Volatility

Stock Price Fluctuations

The price of a stock fluctuates fundamentally due to the theory of supply and demand. Like all commodities in the market, the price of a stock is sensitive to demand. However, there are many factors that influence the demand for a particular stock. The field of fundamental analysis and technical analysis attempt to understand market conditions that lead to price changes, or even predict future price levels. A recent study shows that customer satisfaction, as measured by the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI), is significantly correlated to the market value of a stock. Stock price may be influenced by analyst's business forecast for the company and outlooks for the company's general market segment.
Share price determination

At any given moment, an equity's price is strictly a result of supply and demand. The supply is the number of shares offered for sale at any one moment. The demand is the number of shares investors wish to buy at exactly that same time. The price of the stock moves in order to achieve and maintain equilibrium.

When prospective buyers outnumber sellers, the price rises. Eventually, sellers attracted to the high selling price enter the market and/or buyers leave, achieving equilibrium between buyers and sellers. When sellers outnumber buyers, the price falls. Eventually buyers enter and/or sellers leave, again achieving equilibrium.

Thus, the value of a share of a company at any given moment is determined by all investors voting with their money. If more investors want a stock and are willing to pay more, the price will go up. If more investors are selling a stock and there aren't enough buyers, the price will go down.

* Note: "For Nasdaq-listed stocks, the price quote includes information on the bid and ask prices for the stock."

Of course, that does not explain how people decide the maximum price at which they are willing to buy or the minimum at which they are willing to sell. In professional investment circles the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) continues to be popular, although this theory is widely discredited in academic and professional circles. Briefly, EMH says that investing is overall (weighted by a Stdev) rational; that the price of a stock at any given moment represents a rational evaluation of the known information that might bear on the future value of the company; and that share prices of equities are priced efficiently, which is to say that they represent accurately the expected value of the stock, as best it can be known at a given moment. In other words, prices are the result of discounting expected future cash flows.

The EMH model, if true, has at least two interesting consequences. First, because financial risk is presumed to require at least a small premium on expected value, the return on equity can be expected to be slightly greater than that available from non-equity investments: if not, the same rational calculations would lead equity investors to shift to these safer non-equity investments that could be expected to give the same or better return at lower risk. Second, because the price of a share at every given moment is an "efficient" reflection of expected value, then—relative to the curve of expected return—prices will tend to follow a random walk, determined by the emergence of information (randomly) over time. Professional equity investors therefore immerse themselves in the flow of fundamental information, seeking to gain an advantage over their competitors (mainly other professional investors) by more intelligently interpreting the emerging flow of information (news).

The EMH model does not seem to give a complete description of the process of equity price determination. For example, stock markets are more volatile than EMH would imply. In recent years it has come to be accepted that the share markets are not perfectly efficient, perhaps especially in emerging markets or other markets that are not dominated by well-informed professional investors.

Another theory of share price determination comes from the field of Behavioral Finance. According to Behavioral Finance, humans often make irrational decisions—particularly, related to the buying and selling of securities—based upon fears and misperceptions of outcomes. The irrational trading of securities can often create securities prices which vary from rational, fundamental price valuations. For instance, during the technology bubble of the late 1990s (which was followed by the dot-com bust of 2000-2002), technology companies were often bid beyond any rational fundamental value because of what is commonly known as the "greater fool theory". The "greater fool theory" holds that, because the predominant method of realizing returns in equity is from the sale to another investor, one should select securities that they believe that someone else will value at a higher level at some point in the future, without regard to the basis for that other party's willingness to pay a higher price. Thus, even a rational investor may bank on others' irrationality.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Trading:Buying And Selling

Buying

There are various methods of buying and financing stocks. The most common means is through a stock broker. Whether they are a full service or discount broker, they arrange the transfer of stock from a seller to a buyer. Most trades are actually done through brokers listed with a stock exchange.

There are many different stock brokers from which to choose, such as full service brokers or discount brokers. The full service brokers usually charge more per trade, but give investment advice or more personal service; the discount brokers offer little or no investment advice but charge less for trades. Another type of broker would be a bank or credit union that may have a deal set up with either a full service or discount broker.

There are other ways of buying stock besides through a broker. One way is directly from the company itself. If at least one share is owned, most companies will allow the purchase of shares directly from the company through their investor relations departments. However, the initial share of stock in the company will have to be obtained through a regular stock broker. Another way to buy stock in companies is through Direct Public Offerings which are usually sold by the company itself. A direct public offering is an initial public offering in which the stock is purchased directly from the company, usually without the aid of brokers.

When it comes to financing a purchase of stocks there are two ways: purchasing stock with money that is currently in the buyer's ownership, or by buying stock on margin. Buying stock on margin means buying stock with money borrowed against the stocks in the same account. These stocks, or collateral, guarantee that the buyer can repay the loan; otherwise, the stockbroker has the right to sell the stock (collateral) to repay the borrowed money. He can sell if the share price drops below the margin requirement, at least 50% of the value of the stocks in the account. Buying on margin works the same way as borrowing money to buy a car or a house, using the car or house as collateral. Moreover, borrowing is not free; the broker usually charges 8-10% interest.
Selling

Selling stock is procedurally similar to buying stock. Generally, the investor wants to buy low and sell high, if not in that order (short selling); although a number of reasons may induce an investor to sell at a loss, e.g., to avoid further loss.

As with buying a stock, there is a transaction fee for the broker's efforts in arranging the transfer of stock from a seller to a buyer. This fee can be high or low depending on which type of brokerage, full service or discount, handles the transaction.

After the transaction has been made, the seller is then entitled to all of the money. An important part of selling is keeping track of the earnings. Importantly, on selling the stock, in jurisdictions that have them, capital gains taxes will have to be paid on the additional proceeds, if any, that are in excess of the cost basis.

Friday, April 16, 2010

Here We Go.. Trading

The shares of a company may in general be transferred from shareholders to other parties by sale or other mechanisms, unless prohibited. Most jurisdictions have established laws and regulations governing such transfers, particularly if the issuer is a publicly-traded entity.

The desire of stockholders to trade their shares has led to the establishment of stock exchanges. A stock exchange is an organization that provides a marketplace for trading shares and other derivatives and financial products. Today, investors are usually represented by stock brokers who buy and sell shares of a wide range of companies on the exchanges. A company may list its shares on an exchange by meeting and maintaining the listing requirements of a particular stock exchange. In the United States, through the inter-market quotation system, stocks listed on one exchange can also be traded on other participating exchanges, including the Electronic Communication Networks (ECNs), such as Archipelago or Instinet.

Many large non-U.S companies choose to list on a U.S. exchange as well as an exchange in their home country in order to broaden their investor base. These companies must maintain a block of shares at a bank in the US, typically a certain percentage of their capital. On this basis, the holding bank establishes American Depositary Shares and issues an American Depository Receipt (ADR) for each share a trader acquires. Likewise, many large U.S. companies list their shares at foreign exchanges to raise capital abroad.

Small companies that do not qualify and cannot meet the listing requirements of the major exchanges may be traded over the counter (OTC) by an off-exchange mechanism in which trading occurs directly between parties. The major OTC markets in the United States are the electronic quotation systems OTC Bulletin Board (OTCBB) and the Pink OTC Markets (Pink Sheets) where individual retail investors are also represented by a brokerage firm and the quotation service's requirements for a company to be listed are minimal. Shares of companies in bankruptcy proceeding are usually listed by these quotation services after the stock is delisted from an exchange.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Who Is A Shareholder?

A shareholder (or stockholder) is an individual or company (including a corporation) that legally owns one or more shares of stock in a joint stock company. Both private and public traded companies have shareholders. Companies listed at the stock market are expected to strive to enhance shareholder value.

Shareholders are granted special privileges depending on the class of stock, including the right to vote on matters such as elections to the board of directors, the right to share in distributions of the company's income, the right to purchase new shares issued by the company, and the right to a company's assets during a liquidation of the company. However, shareholder's rights to a company's assets are subordinate to the rights of the company's creditors.

Shareholders are considered by some to be a partial subset of stakeholders, which may include anyone who has a direct or indirect equity interest in the business entity or someone with even a non-pecuniary interest in a non-profit organization. Thus it might be common to call volunteer contributors to an association stakeholders, even though they are not shareholders.

Although directors and officers of a company are bound by fiduciary duties to act in the best interest of the shareholders, the shareholders themselves normally do not have such duties towards each other.

However, in a few unusual cases, some courts have been willing to imply such a duty between shareholders. For example, in California, USA, majority shareholders of closely held corporations have a duty to not destroy the value of the shares held by minority shareholders.

The largest shareholders (in terms of percentages of companies owned) are often mutual funds, and, especially, passively managed exchange-traded funds.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

What Next? Shares What Are They?

The stock of a business is divided into shares, the total of which must be stated at the time of business formation. Given the total amount of money invested in the business, a share has a certain declared face value, commonly known as the par value of a share. The par value is the de minimis (minimum) amount of money that a business may issue and sell shares for in many jurisdictions and it is the value represented as capital in the accounting of the business. In other jurisdictions, however, shares may not have an associated par value at all. Such stock is often called non-par stock. Shares represent a fraction of ownership in a business. A business may declare different types (classes) of shares, each having distinctive ownership rules, privileges, or share values.

Ownership of shares is documented by issuance of a stock certificate. A stock certificate is a legal document that specifies the amount of shares owned by the shareholder, and other specifics of the shares, such as the par value, if any, or the class of the shares.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Getting Started :What Is A Stock

The stock or capital stock of a business entity represents the original capital paid into or invested in the business by its founders. It serves as a security for the creditors of a business since it cannot be withdrawn to the detriment of the creditors. Stock is distinct from the property and the assets of a business which may fluctuate in quantity and value.